AVAX Price Analysis: Risks of New Lows After $16 Breakdown – Could $9 Be Next?
As of November 23, 2025, Avalanche (AVAX) is trading at approximately $13.30–$13.34 USD, down about 0.2–0.7% in the last 24 hours, 12–15% over the past week, and over 30% in the last month. This marks a sharp continuation of its bearish trend, with the token now hugging 52-week lows around $13–$14. The recent breakdown below the critical $16 support level—tested as a floor since March 2025—has intensified selling pressure, confirming a shift to a deeper bearish phase. Sellers dominate across multiple timeframes, with limited buying interest evident in the failure to form higher lows.
Recent Price Action and the $16 Breakdown
AVAX’s slide accelerated this week after decisively breaching $16, a long-respected horizontal support and key psychological level. This zone had acted as a reliable rebound point for eight months, sparking recoveries on prior tests. However, the latest close below it (around November 20–22) triggered cascading liquidations and algorithmic selling, pushing the price toward $13. The breach aligns with a multi-year descending wedge pattern, where AVAX is now testing the lower boundary near $11–$15—a “final accumulation zone” historically linked to cycle reversals but also vulnerable to further downside if not defended.
- 24h Volume: $280–$454 million, indicating sustained but not panic-level trading.
- Market Cap: ~$5.71 billion, ranking AVAX #14–#16 among cryptocurrencies.
- Broader Context: AVAX has underperformed the crypto market, down 69% year-over-year, amid altcoin weakness, regulatory delays (e.g., Grayscale AVAX ETF stalled), and Bitcoin dominance pressuring smaller caps. On-chain metrics show robust activity (50M+ tx/day via Visa integration), but this hasn’t translated to price support yet.
Technical Indicators: Oversold but Bearish Momentum Persists
Technical setups paint a neutral-to-strong sell picture, with oversold signals hinting at a potential short-term bounce but no clear reversal yet:
| Indicator | Current Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14-day) | 28–30.31 | Deeply oversold (<30); suggests exhaustion and possible mean reversion, but sustained below 30 risks further capitulation. |
| MACD | -0.03 to -2.01 (histogram slowing) | Bearish crossover confirmed; momentum is decelerating but still negative, supporting downside bias. |
| Bollinger Bands | Price at 0.03–0.09 (hugging lower band ~$13.78–$14.14) | Classic oversold setup; middle band (~$16.50–$16.76) as first upside target if bounce occurs. |
| Moving Averages | Below all key MAs (e.g., SMA 20 at $16.76; 50-EMA ~$16) | Strong sell; price below confirms downtrend—reclaim $16 needed for bullish shift. |
| Stochastic Oscillator | %K: 11.75, %D: 9.82 | Extreme oversold; approaching levels that often precede bounces. |
Overall summary from TradingView: Neutral oscillators/MAs, but 1-week/1-month rating: Strong Sell. The structure shows lower highs and rejections, with AVAX trapped in a descending channel—any upside limited without volume surge.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Immediate Support: $13–$14 (current 24h low; Bollinger lower band). Below here: $12 (Fib 0.786 retracement) and $11–$10 (multi-year wedge floor/”smart money” zone).
- Critical Bearish Threshold: $9–$8.52 (projected next major support; aligns with 2023 lows and cycle-based targets). A close below $12–$14 could accelerate to this level via liquidations.
- Resistance: $16 (broken support, now overhead); $18–$19 (SMA 20/middle Bollinger); $20–$22 (prior highs).
- Bearish Invalidation: Breakdown below $14.03–$12 signals “cascading liquidations” toward $9–$8.52.
- Bullish Confirmation: Daily close above $16.76, targeting $18–$20 initially.
Analyst Forecasts: Drop to $9 Possible, But Oversold Bounce in Play?
The market is divided—bearish near-term risks dominate, but oversold conditions fuel rebound calls. Aggregated predictions for November–December 2025:
| Source/Analyst | Short-Term Target (1–4 Weeks) | Risk of $9 Drop? | Longer-Term (End-2025) | Confidence/Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Market Periodical / Ali Charts | Downward path to $9 (lower highs/rejections) | High | N/A | Bearish structure; sellers in control, but bounces from channel lows possible. |
| OneSafe Blog | $9–$10 next support | High | N/A | Lack of buying interest; institutional accumulation could cap downside. |
| Changelly | $13.64–$13.77 (Nov min/max) | Medium | $14.69 max | +4% short-term rebound to $13.72 by Nov 24; Lark Davis eyes $100 long-term. |
| BitcoinEthereumNews | $18–$25 recovery | Medium (if < $14.03) | N/A | Oversold bounce to middle Bollinger; monitor $16.76 close. |
| CoinCodex | $13.31–$13.34 (this week) | Low short-term | $15.91 (2026) | +0.18% to $13.34 by Nov 23; oversold RSI at 28.52. |
| Blockchain.news (Oversold Bounce) | $18–$20 | Medium (if < $12) | N/A | 17–20% upside; stop-loss $13.50. |
| CCN | New lows to single digits | High | N/A | Bearish RSI/MACD; decline through year-end unless bulls intervene. |
| Brave New Coin / Crypto Patel | $11–$15 accumulation | High (90% from ATH) | $18–$43+ if breakout | Deep value zone; monthly RSI at historic low. |
| The Coin Republic / Carl Moon | Smart money zone below $16 | High | N/A | $16 as demand floor; violent wicks could precede recovery. |
Consensus: 60–70% of analysts see $9–$12 as plausible if $14 support fails, driven by macro headwinds (e.g., ETF delays, altcoin bleed). However, 30–40% probability of a 15–20% bounce to $16–$18 from oversold levels within 1–2 weeks, especially if Bitcoin stabilizes. For 2025 overall, averages point to $14–$33 highs, but with high volatility.
Risks and Opportunities
- Bearish Risks: Continued altcoin pressure, failure to hold $12–$14 (triggers $9 cascade), low volume limiting bounces. Broader market (Bitcoin < $80K) exacerbates.
- Bullish Catalysts: Mainnet upgrades (recently launched for scalability), on-chain growth, or ETF approvals could spark $18+ moves. Oversold metrics favor contrarian buys at $12–$13.50 (2–3% portfolio risk).
- What to Watch: Daily close vs. $14; volume spikes; Bitcoin correlation.
In summary, yes—the $16 breakdown heightens risks of new lows at $9, with bears firmly in control short-term. But extreme oversold readings suggest a tactical bounce opportunity before any deeper drop. This is not financial advice; always DYOR and consider volatility.