The Whale Exodus: 200 Million XRP Offloaded Amid Fragile Sentiment
The XRP market is under siege as major holders—wallets with 1-10 million tokens—have dumped nearly 200 million XRP in just 48 hours, according to on-chain data from Santiment shared by analyst Ali Martinez on November 16, 2025. This aggressive sell-off, valued at approximately $450 million at current prices, has intensified pressure on XRP, which is trading at $2.26—down 0.28% in the last 24 hours amid a broader market dip that has shaved 0.8% off the $3.57 trillion crypto cap. The token’s price has now slipped below the $2.30 support level, marking a 7.3% decline from its recent high of $2.43, and erasing $13 billion in market cap in the process. With XRP’s RSI at 38 (oversold territory) and a bearish MACD crossover signaling weakening momentum, the question on every trader’s mind is whether this whale capitulation foreshadows a massive crash—potentially to $2.00 or lower—or if it’s the final shakeout before a rebound.
This isn’t an isolated event; it’s part of a broader pattern of whale distribution that has plagued XRP throughout 2025. Over the past two weeks, large holders have offloaded around 200 million tokens, contributing to a 24% plunge from $3.10 highs in early November. The timing couldn’t be worse: It comes just days after the Canary Capital spot XRP ETF (XRPC) launched with a record $58 million in Day 1 volume, which was expected to ignite buying but instead triggered a “sell-the-news” reaction. Exchange inflows have spiked 15% to $830 million in UNI held (a related DeFi token), but for XRP, the net effect has been a 34% reduction in whale balances from 163.7 million to 107.8 million tokens. As sentiment turns fearful—Fear & Greed Index at 29 and 43% green days over 30 days—the risk of a deeper correction looms large. Yet, on-chain metrics like algorithmic buying into dips and a 50% volume increase (157.9 million tokens traded) suggest absorption by retail and institutions, potentially capping the downside.
Whale Activity Breakdown: Distribution or Capitulation?
The 200 million XRP dump—equivalent to 0.9% of circulating supply (56 billion tokens)—stems from wallets in the 1-10 million range, which have reduced balances by 34% in recent weeks. Santiment data shows this mirrors January 2025’s pattern, when similar outflows preceded a 24% crash to $1.38 before a recovery to $2.80 by June. Key moves include:
- Mid-October Spike: 1.10 billion XRP (1-10M wallets) sold in a week, aligning with price peaks near $3.10.
- Late October Wave: 70 million XRP in 48 hours, coinciding with the ETF launch and a drop to $2.27.
- November 4-16: 900,000 XRP in five days, per Ali Martinez, with the latest 200 million in 48 hours pushing prices below $2.30.
This distribution—net whale flow negative at -107.8 million tokens—has triggered $123 million in liquidations (80% longs), amplifying the pain. However, algorithmic bids absorbed much of the supply, stabilizing at $2.31 support, and MVRV Z-Score at 1.2 indicates fair value, not overbought froth.
| Whale Cohort | Tokens Dumped (48H) | % Change | USD Value (~$2.26) | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-10M Wallets | 200M XRP | -34% (2W) | $452M | Distribution; confidence waning |
| 10-100M Wallets | 70M XRP (Late Oct) | -12% | $158M | Profit-taking post-ETF |
| 100M+ Wallets | 1.10B XRP (Mid-Oct) | -5% | $2.49B | Strategic reduction |
Data from Santiment and Ali Martinez; cohorts based on address balances.
Is a Massive Crash Imminent? Technicals and Catalysts Weigh In
Short answer: Not imminent, but risks are elevated—$2.00 support is the line in the sand. XRP’s descending wedge since July 2025 completed a correction with the ETF launch, but repeated failures to break $2.60-$2.70 (200-day MA) have formed lower highs, setting up a potential death cross (50-day MA crossing below 200-day). The 7.3% drop to $2.27 liquidated $4.06 million in a minute, but volume spikes (157.9M tokens, 50% above average) confirm distribution absorption. RSI at 38 hints at oversold bounce potential, with $2.31 holding as immediate floor—failure opens $2.00-$2.20 (11-12% down), but a V-reversal above $2.36 eyes $2.60 (15% up, 62% Polymarket odds).
Catalysts for rebound:
- ETF Structural Flows: XRPC’s $58M Day 1 ($245M inflows) is just the start—McClurg forecasts $5B monthly, absorbing escrow (1B XRP/month) and driving $3-$4 Q4.
- Ripple Utility: ODL volumes up 120% YoY to $18B annually; GTreasury acquisition ($1B) unlocks banking integrations.
- Whale Absorption: Algorithmic buys into dips (50% of sell-off) and 107.8M net LTH position stabilize supply.
Bear triggers: Continued whale outflows (900K in 5 days) and macro slips (Fed pause 45%, tariffs +0.3% CPI) could test $2.00, but MVRV golden cross signals undervaluation.
| Scenario | Probability | Price Target | Timeline | Key Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rebound to $2.60+ | 62% | $2.60-$3.00 | 1-2 Weeks | ETF $5B inflows; $2.36 close |
| Crash to $2.00- | 38% | $1.80-$2.00 | 1 Week | $2.31 break; whale flows -50M/day |
| Bull Extension | 20% | $3.50-$4.00 | EOY 2025 | ODL $20B Q4; ETF $1B/month |
Projections from Polymarket, Ali Martinez, and TradingView confluence.
The Bigger Picture: XRP’s Resilience Amid Whale Noise
Whale dumps like this 200 million XRP exodus are XRP’s rite of passage—echoing January’s 710M sell-off before a 24% crash to $1.38, then $2.80 recovery. But 2025’s ETF structural demand and Ripple’s TradFi bridges (300+ partners) change the game: $58M Day 1 volume rivals SOL’s debut, with $5B monthly potential absorbing supply. As @ChadSteingraber noted on X: “Whales dumping 200M XRP—still clinging to hopium?” (viral with 1K engagements), sentiment’s fragile, but on-chain bids (50% absorption) and ISO 20022 remittances ($18B annually) fortify the floor.
No massive crash imminent—$2.00 is the test, $2.60 the breakout. In a $3.57T market, XRP’s utility endures; whales distribute, but demand accumulates. HODL the dip; the leg up awaits.