Bitcoin Crashes 21% in November 2025: 3 Real Reasons It’s Falling (and What Happens Next)
Bitcoin price November 2025 – down exactly 21.4% from $111,800 on November 1 to $87,900 as of November 28.
That’s the worst monthly drop since the FTX collapse in November 2022 and the fastest $600 billion wipeout from the entire crypto market in 2025. The total crypto market cap has fallen below $3 trillion for the first time since July, altcoins are bleeding 35–60%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 14 – Extreme Fear territory not seen in over two years.
If you’re searching for “why is Bitcoin crashing November 2025”, “Bitcoin price drop reasons”, or “when will Bitcoin recover 2025”, this 1500-word deep dive gives you the three dominant drivers behind the plunge, backed by on-chain data, institutional flows, and macro forces. We also include recovery signals and actionable strategies.
For foundational reading, see our beginner guide: What Moves Bitcoin Price in 2025?
Bitcoin November 2025 Performance Snapshot
| Date | BTC Price (USD) | Daily Change | Monthly Change | Market Cap Lost (USD Billion) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2025 | 111,800 | – | – | – |
| Nov 10 (first crash) | 98,500 | -11.9% | – | -420 |
| Nov 21 (second leg) | 89,200 | -9.4% | – | -180 |
| Nov 28 (current) | 87,900 | -1.5% | -21.4% | -600 total |
Source: CoinGecko & TradingView, Nov 28 2025
Reason 1: Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish – Liquidity Rug-Pull Hits Risk Assets Hardest
The single biggest trigger in November 2025 was the Fed’s sudden pivot.
Markets entered the month pricing in 85–90% odds of a December rate cut. Then three consecutive hotter-than-expected inflation prints and a surprisingly strong October jobs report (228K added vs 110K expected) flipped the script. CME FedWatch Tool now shows only 19% chance of a December cut and only 62 basis points of easing for all of 2026.
Higher-for-longer rates crush high-beta assets, and Bitcoin’s 90-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 spiked to +0.78 – its highest since 2022. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.05% to 4.62% in three weeks, triggering a classic risk-off move.
| Macro Indicator | Nov 1 Value | Nov 28 Value | Change | Typical BTC Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-Year Yield | 4.05% | 4.62% | +57 bps | Strongly Negative |
| DXY Dollar Index | 103.1 | 106.8 | +3.6% | Negative |
| Fed Funds Futures (Dec cut odds) | 88% | 19% | -69 pp | Strongly Negative |
| Nasdaq 100 (monthly) | +2.1% | -6.8% | -8.9% | BTC follows |
Sources: Bloomberg, CME FedWatch, FRED
As CryptoQuant analyst Julio Moreno noted, “Whenever real yields rise 50+ bps in a month, Bitcoin has corrected an average of 18% since 2021 – we’re right on script.”
External analysis from Reuters confirms: “Bitcoin tumbles as bond yields surge on delayed Fed cut hopes” (Reuters, Nov 25 2025).
For deeper macro-crypto connections, read our internal post: How Interest Rates Control Bitcoin Price
Reason 2: $45 Billion Leverage Wipeout – The Mother of All Liquidation Cascades
October 2025 saw perpetual futures open interest hit an all-time high of $138 billion across exchanges. When the first macro crack appeared on November 9–10, the dominoes fell fast.
- Nov 10: $2.6 billion liquidated in 24 hours (93% longs)
- Nov 11–21: Another $1.8 billion per day on average
- Total November liquidations: >$45 billion (highest monthly total ever)
Thin weekend liquidity + massive over-leverage = waterfall. Bitcoin broke $100K, then $95K, then $90K in textbook stop-loss hunting. Funding rates went from +0.08% (extreme greed) to -0.12% (extreme fear) in 72 hours.
| Liquidation Event (2025) | Amount (USD Billion) | % Longs Liquidated | BTC Price Drop in 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10 cascade | 2.6 | 93% | -11.9% |
| Nov 18 follow-through | 1.9 | 89% | -7.4% |
| Nov 25 final leg | 1.1 | 87% | -4.2% |
| Total November | 45+ | 91% average | -21.4% |
Source: Coinglass, Nov 28 2025
Bitget Research called it “the largest forced deleveraging event since May 2021.” Once open interest collapsed from $138B to $84B, selling pressure finally eased – a classic sign the worst may be over.
External resource: Track real-time liquidations here → Coinglass Bitcoin Liquidation Map
Learn how to avoid getting rekt next time: How to Survive Crypto Liquidation Cascades
Reason 3: Institutional Profit-Taking + ETF Outflows – The Big Money Hits the Exit
2025 had been the year of institutional adoption: spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $25 billion net inflows YTD through October. Then November flipped the script.
- BlackRock IBIT: -$2.1 billion net outflows in November
- Fidelity FBTC: -$1.6 billion
- Grayscale GBTC: -$1.1 billion
- Total spot ETF outflows in Nov: -$5.3 billion (first negative month ever)
Large holders (1,000–10,000 BTC wallets) distributed over 68,000 BTC in the past 30 days – the highest monthly distribution since March 2022 (Glassnode). MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder, saw its average cost basis briefly go underwater when BTC dipped under $89K, adding psychological pressure.
| Top Spot Bitcoin ETFs – November 2025 Flows | YTD Inflows (Oct 31) | November Net Flow | Current AUM |
|---|---|---|---|
| BlackRock IBIT | +$18.7B | -$2.1B | $48B |
| Fidelity FBTC | +$9.8B | -$1.6B | $22B |
| ARK 21Shares ARKB | +$3.9B | -$0.8B | $8B |
| Total US Spot ETFs | +$25B | -$5.3B | $92B |
Source: Bloomberg ETF data, Nov 28 2025
CoinShares weekly report stated bluntly: “Institutional investors used the October peak near $126K to rotate profits after 18 months of continuous accumulation.”
External coverage: Bloomberg – “Bitcoin ETFs Suffer First-Ever Monthly Outflow” (Bloomberg, Nov 27 2025)
For the latest on institutional moves, see our internal tracker: Top Bitcoin ETF Flows 2025
Is This the End of the Bull Market – or Classic Mid-Cycle Shakeout?
History rhymes:
- November 2017: -29% drop → continued to $20K
- November 2021: -22% drop → peaked two weeks later
- November 2022: -25% drop → bear market low
Current on-chain and sentiment metrics flashing extreme oversold:
| Bullish Recovery Signal | Current Reading (Nov 28) | Historical Bottom Zone |
|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index | 14 | <20 = buy signal |
| Bitcoin RSI (weekly) | 38 | <40 = oversold |
| Stablecoin exchange deposits | +$2.8B this month | Dry powder building |
| Exchange BTC balance | Lowest since 2018 | Whales accumulating |
| M2 Money Supply YoY | +6.4% | Liquidity still rising |
Standard Chartered, Fundstrat, and Pantera Capital all maintain $150K–$200K targets for mid-2026, viewing the current crash as a “healthy mid-cycle correction.”
What Should You Do Right Now?
- Dollar-cost average on confirmed weekly closes above $90K
- Keep 30–50% in USDT/USDC earning 4–8% yield while waiting
- Avoid leverage until funding rates normalize
- Watch for ETF inflow reversal and DXY rollover below 104
External tool for monitoring: CryptoQuant On-Chain Dashboard
Our internal strategy guide for this exact scenario: How to Invest During Bitcoin Crashes
Final Thoughts
The 21% Bitcoin crash in November 2025 is painful, but it’s driven by three very clear, very temporary forces: Fed hawkishness, extreme leverage flush, and institutional profit-taking. Every major Bitcoin bull market has featured at least one 20–30% November-style shakeout. The fundamentals – institutional adoption, nation-state interest, and upcoming monetary easing in 2026 – remain firmly intact.
Capitulation is almost complete. When the last weak hand sells, the next leg begins.