Rumor Dispelled: No Link Between Fed Rate Cut and Alleged CPI Cancellation
A circulating rumor claiming that the U.S. Federal Reserve’s potential December 2025 interest rate cut was tied to a “cancellation” of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report has been thoroughly debunked as misinformation. As of November 21, 2025, no official CPI data has been canceled—though delays in October and November reports occurred due to the recent 43-day U.S. government shutdown (resolved November 12), which halted data collection by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
The September CPI report was released as scheduled on October 24 (showing tame inflation), but October’s data was impaired and partially folded into November’s delayed release, with some metrics permanently affected. This created a temporary “data vacuum” for Fed policymakers, but it did not lead to any deliberate cancellation or direct causation for rate decisions.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell and officials have repeatedly emphasized a “data-dependent” approach, with the October 29 rate cut (25 bps to 3.75-4%) based on pre-shutdown trends showing cooling inflation (September CPI at 3%) and resilient growth. December cut odds have fluctuated (currently 35-55% per CME FedWatch, down from 75% pre-shutdown), driven by stronger-than-expected September jobs data and hawkish FOMC minutes—not CPI manipulation. As Powell noted in October: “We’ll start to miss that data… it will become more challenging,” but the Fed relies on alternative sources (private surveys, ISM) during gaps.
The rumor appears to stem from misinterpretations of shutdown impacts—exaggerated on X and forums as “CPI canceled to force cuts”—but official statements from BLS and Treasury confirm no outright cancellation, only delays and impairments. Rate decisions remain independent, with inflation projections holding at 2.1% for 2025.
Current Fed Rate Cut Expectations (December 2025)
| Source | Cut Odds | Key Reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| CME FedWatch | 35% (25 bps) | Delayed data + resilient jobs; hawkish minutes |
| Morgan Stanley | Dropped forecast | Strong employment; inflation above 2% target |
| Reuters/FOMC Minutes | Divided (many favor pause) | Persistent inflation vs. labor risks |
| Consensus | 35-55% | Data vacuum tilts cautious; January cut more likely |
No evidence supports a “cancellation” conspiracy—pure misinformation amid shutdown chaos. Fed independence holds; cuts hinge on evolving data, not fabricated gaps. DYOR; markets react to facts, not rumors.