A Post-Launch Reality Check: Why the XRP Rally Fizzled
The cryptocurrency market has been abuzz with the historic launch of the first U.S. spot XRP Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) on November 13, 2025—Canary Capital’s XRPC, which debuted with a record-breaking $58 million in first-day trading volume, edging out even Bitwise’s Solana ETF for the top spot among 2025 launches. This milestone, long anticipated after Ripple’s regulatory victories, was expected to ignite a sustained rally for XRP, the token underpinning Ripple’s cross-border payment network. Instead, XRP’s price plunged over 7% in the ensuing days, dipping to $2.27 before stabilizing around $2.30 as of November 16, 2025—erasing much of the pre-launch hype and leaving investors questioning the ETF’s immediate impact.
Enter the “finance coach”: Nick, founder of The Web Alert, a prominent crypto analyst known for his no-nonsense breakdowns and technical insights. In a recent analysis shared across platforms like Times Tabloid, Nick dissected the disconnect, attributing XRP’s failure to surge not to inherent weakness but to broader market dynamics and structural delays in ETF mechanics. “XRP’s price action is textbook—breaking down from a descending wedge, but the ETF inflows are the wildcard that could flip the script,” Nick explained, urging traders to zoom out beyond the short-term noise. His take resonates in a $3.57 trillion crypto market still digesting the U.S. government’s 43-day shutdown resolution, where Bitcoin’s 0.8% dip to $103,000 has dragged alts like XRP lower despite positive catalysts.
This “failure” isn’t a collapse but a classic sell-the-news event, amplified by macro pressures and ETF settlement lags. As XRP’s RSI hovers at 38 (oversold territory) and MACD shows a bearish crossover, Nick’s guidance offers a roadmap for stabilization—and potential reversal. Below, we unpack his key points, the ETF’s debut details, and why XRP could still target $5 by year-end.
Nick’s Breakdown: ETF Euphoria Meets Market Reality
Nick’s analysis cuts through the FOMO: While XRPC’s $58 million volume (and $245 million in net inflows) set a 2025 record—surpassing Solana’s $57 million launch—the mechanical buying that should back the ETF hasn’t fully materialized yet. “ETF issuers settle T+1, meaning the spot XRP purchases to collateralize shares happen the next business day,” Nick noted. This delay—combined with a risk-off broader market (global equities down 0.13%, Nasdaq correlation at 0.88)—muted the immediate pump, allowing profit-taking to dominate.
Key insights from Nick:
- Pattern Persistence: XRP remains trapped in a descending wedge since July 2025, with the ETF launch completing a correction rather than sparking breakout. “The 7.3% drop to $2.27 was the shakeout—now holding $2.29 is crucial; failure opens $2.00-$2.20, but a V-reversal above $2.36 signals bulls back in control.”
- Volume Validation: Three spikes above 57 million XRP traded during the decline confirmed distribution, but ETF demand (under 1% of XRP’s $141 billion cap) was too small to counter it initially. “Inflows are impressive for Day 1, but XRP’s massive liquidity needs $1B+ to move meaningfully.”
- Broader Pressures: Bitcoin’s 9% weekly tumble and altcoin beta (XRP’s 1.2 sensitivity) amplified the dip, with $4.06 million XRP liquidated in a single minute from $2.313 to $2.295. “Sentiment’s fragile—XRP responds disproportionately to majors’ weakness.”
- Zoom-Out Optimism: Despite the flat reaction, Nick sees the ETF as a “structural tailwind.” “Ripple’s 300+ banking partners use the network sans XRP, but ETF accessibility flips that—real-world utility like ODL ($18B annually) will drive flows.”
X echoes Nick’s call: @NCashOfficial’s “And then we dumped #Bitcoin, the day of the $XRP ETF approval, to suppress the market even more” (viral post with 1K+ engagements) highlights suppression theories, while @ali_charts notes: “XRP can’t even stay above $3 because it threatens everything” (@Versan Aljarrah, Black Swan Capitalist).
XRPC ETF Debut: Record Volume, Muted Price Impact
XRPC’s launch was a triumph in metrics but a head-scratcher in price action. Debuting at ~$50 NAV (20.83 XRP per share), it clocked $58.5 million in volume and $245 million in net inflows—crushing analyst estimates of $17 million and topping all 900+ 2025 ETF launches. In-kind creations (APs swapping XRP for shares) minimized immediate spot buying, explaining the lag: Issuers like Jane Street settle T+1, so collateral purchases hit November 14.
Broader ETF wave: Altcoin funds now at $13.75 billion inflows, with XRPC rivaling SOL/LTC debuts. McClurg forecasts $5 billion monthly, unlocking XRP’s remittances niche ($18B annually via ODL). Risks: Escrow releases (1B XRP monthly) add supply, but ETF demand could absorb.
| Metric | XRPC Day 1 (Nov 13) | Comparison |
|---|---|---|
| Trading Volume | $58.5M | Beats SOL’s $57M (top 2025 debut) |
| Net Inflows | $245M | 14x analyst est. ($17M) |
| XRP Price Reaction | -7.3% to $2.27 | Sell-the-news amid BTC dip |
| RSI (Post-Launch) | 38 (Oversold) | Room for rebound above $2.36 |
Why the “Failure”? Macro, Mechanics, and Mindset
- Market-Wide Risk-Off: BTC’s 9% weekly slide and Nasdaq’s -0.13% dragged alts (beta 1.2 for XRP), with $4.06M liquidated in a minute—typical “buy the rumor, sell the news.”
- Settlement Delay: T+1 mechanics mean spot buys lag; $245M inflows translate to ~102M XRP purchased November 14, too late for Day 1 pump.
- Supply Dynamics: 1B monthly escrow releases pressure price; ETF’s <1% cap impact needs scaling to $1B+ for meaningful lift.
- Sentiment Fragility: XRP’s history of suppression theories (e.g., @Versan Aljarrah: “XRP threatens everything”) amplifies dips, but Nick counters: “Bigger picture—ETF structural flows build long-term.”
Path to Stabilization and $5: Nick’s Roadmap
Nick’s playbook: Hold $2.29 support—failure risks $2.00, but V-reversal above $2.36 eyes $2.60 (62% Polymarket odds). ETF inflows ($5B/month potential) and ODL growth ($18B annually) fuel $3-$4 Q4, $5 by EOY on $1B+ scaling. Bull case: $10 2026 on tokenized RWAs ($16T by 2030). Bear: $2.00 on macro slips.
XRP’s “failure” is fleeting—ETF’s a foundation, not fireworks. As Nick urges: “Zoom out—the correction’s done; breakout looms.” In a $3.57T market, patience pays; XRP’s utility endures.