The “Big Short” Echo: Lee’s Warning of a Sharp Correction
Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors and a perennial crypto bull, has once again captured the market’s attention with a stark prediction for Bitcoin (BTC): An extreme dip is imminent, potentially pulling prices below $90,000 in the short term, but this could set the stage for a robust recovery. In a Bloomberg interview on November 22, 2025, Lee described the current setup as a “40-day window” for volatility, citing overleveraged positions and a “dash for cash” amid economic uncertainty.
Bitcoin could still reach $150,000–$200,000 by the end of January despite the current market downturn,” he said, providing traders with a clear upside range and timeframe. This dual forecast—short-term pain followed by long-term gain—aligns with Lee’s track record of bold calls, including his accurate 2020 prediction of BTC hitting $100,000-$150,000 by early 2025 (it peaked at $108,000 in October).
Lee’s cautionary note comes as Bitcoin trades at approximately $113,064 (up 0.1% daily), with a $2.25 trillion market cap in a $3.57 trillion total ecosystem (flat over 24 hours). The token’s 24-hour volatility at 0.1% masks underlying risks: Open interest near $47.89 billion and a Fear & Greed Index of 14 (Extreme Fear) suggest leveraged longs are vulnerable.
Lee’s “ugly bottoms” reference echoes his view that corrections are necessary to shake out weak hands before the next phase, potentially amplified by a Federal Reserve rate pause (30% odds for December cut, 69% unchanged). As he noted in a recent CNBC appearance: “Crypto due for a push today. We are in 2000 territory on specs… We MUST focus on this before people really get hurt. TRIM.”
This prediction isn’t isolated—it’s part of Lee’s broader bullish thesis, where he envisions BTC matching gold’s market cap ($15 trillion) to hit $2 million in the coming years, unfazed by dips. Short-term, however, he warns of “pre-2026 selling” disrupting cycles, paving a strong 2026 phase. Analysts like those at Bitget align, forecasting $4,125-$4,190 resistance tests with $4,252 targets on a breakout.
Technical Setup: RSI Bullish, But Momentum Shift Looms
Bitcoin’s chart supports Lee’s mixed outlook: The weekly RSI at 60.86 remains bullish, but the line’s flattening gradient hints at increasing selling pressure and potential declines. A sustained break above $4,125-$4,190 could target $4,252 and the 2025 high of $4,382, with Fibonacci extensions eyeing $4,550. However, failure here risks a correction to $3,900, per Bitget’s analysis.
Key levels:
| Level | Type | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| $113,064 | Current | Neutral; above $110K support |
| $115,000 | Resistance | Weekly high; break eyes $120K |
| $110,000 | Support | Key floor; loss risks $100K |
| $120,000 | Upside Target | 6% gain; aligns with Lee’s $150K call |
Market Context: Cycles, Inflows, and Supercycle Hopes
Lee’s view ties into Bitcoin’s 4-year halving cycles, with 2025 as a transition year before 2026’s bull peak. ETF inflows ($70 billion AUM) and institutional adoption provide buffers, but “first-order effects” like 2025 selling to avoid perceived down years could cap gains. Horsley’s take: $1.9 trillion BTC vs. $120 trillion equities/$140 trillion bonds/$250 trillion real estate—room for supercycle growth.
Consensus: 2025 EOY $106,000-$150,000 (Changelly/CoinDCX); 2026 $150K-$200K (Lee/Bitget).
Lee’s Track Record: Bold Calls That Often Hit
Lee’s predictions have a mixed but prescient history:
- 2020: $100K-$150K by 2025—hit $108K in Oct 2025.
- 2017: BTC as “scarcer store of value” than gold—now $2.25T vs. gold’s $15T.
- Recent: $250K by 2025-end (Aug 2025)—on track if $150K-$200K Jan hits.
Critics note timing (“too early”), but accuracy shines in bull phases.
Verdict: Extreme Dip Likely, But $150K+ by Jan (65% Odds)
Lee’s forecast—dip below $90K (55% odds short-term) but $150K-$200K by Jan—aligns with cycles and inflows. Buy dips below $110K; target $120K EOY. In $3.57T market, BTC’s resilience endures—Lee’s call: Navigate the storm, seize the surge. DYOR; volatility’s the game.